A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
