Intensifying War of Words Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Triggers Anxieties of Conflict

Growing worries have emerged regarding the potential of military engagement among Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has intensified in the past few weeks.

Red Sea coastline
The Ethiopian government and Eritrea were allies in the civil war in northern Ethiopia but they have subsequently disagreed.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has triggered a intense verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. After a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a military clash erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

Amid persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a strategy of retaking lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on recently that efforts to justify "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Region

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The head of human resources department of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the military was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British administration before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries remained at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was over – a action that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet relations have later worsened anew.

Jane Evans
Jane Evans

A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting strategies and statistical modeling.